Defense Secretary William Cohen’s base closing proposal could have a major impact in his home state of Maine, leaving at risk more than 8,000 jobs at the Brunswick Naval Air Station and the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard in Kittery.

Cohen wants Congress to form an independent commission to close bases in 2001 and 2005. But there are serious doubts that the former senator’s plan will ever survive a second congressional review in two years.

Lawrence Korb, a defense analyst at the Brookings Institution in Washington, said that it is an election year and anyone who votes for Cohen’s plan could be accused of trying to close bases in their own districts.

U.S. Sen. Olympia Snowe, a member of the Armed Services Committee, said few lawmakers have changed their minds on base closings since last year’s 66-33 Senate vote against it.

Pitching his bill in the House and Senate last week, Cohen argued that the Pentagon is still spending too much money to maintain bases the military no longer needs and it would be smarter to modernize weapons systems.

Both Snowe and fellow Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins said they will oppose more base closings this year, and Maine’s two Democratic congressmen, Tom Allen and John Baldacci, said they also are inclined to oppose the plan.

“I’m skeptical of the need to do it,” said Allen, a member of the House National Security Committee. But he said Republican leaders should hold hearings to examine the issue.

Snowe is not convinced the country will reap the savings Cohen promises from the closings, saying his figures are hard to document.

Cohen told his former Senate colleagues last week that the military has spent $23 billion to close military bases so far, but will save $14 billion by 2001 and $5.6 billion each year after that.

Cohen, a critic of base closings while in the Senate, has stressed in public appearances that some former military bases, including the former Pease Air Force Base in New Hampshire, have evolved into thriving economic centers for their communities.